Stock Market Trends and Forecasts
The market correction continued today, with all major indeces posting relatively small losses. Oil price had a significant spike up, but is still well within its long term downtrend. The large downturn in the bond issues gave a great boost to one of our positions. Our indicators do not contradict a continuation of the current downtrend, but we'll continue moving carefully on monday.
The newly opened DIA position closed today at +15% (was opened yesterday).
The ORCL position closed today at +55% (10 days in this trade)
Have a great weekend!
Friday, November 03, 2006
Wednesday, November 01, 2006
Stock Market Trends and Forecasts - Daily review - November 1
Stock Market Trends and Forecasts
In accord with the reading of our indicators (see yesterday post), all major equity indexes have closed lower today. The long term trend remains positive for the time being; we'll see in the next few days if we are facing a more significant retreat. Therefore, we will not open any new positions tomorrow.
Today's retreat caused our DIA put position to close today at a nice 15% profit (position was opened Oct 30th).
In accord with the reading of our indicators (see yesterday post), all major equity indexes have closed lower today. The long term trend remains positive for the time being; we'll see in the next few days if we are facing a more significant retreat. Therefore, we will not open any new positions tomorrow.
Today's retreat caused our DIA put position to close today at a nice 15% profit (position was opened Oct 30th).
Tuesday, October 31, 2006
Stock Market Trends - month's end - Stock Market Trends and Forecasts
Stock Market Trends and Forecasts
The Market - As of October 31st, from the long-term point of view, equities are posed to continue their current four-months run-up. The mid-term perspective calls for a bit of caution since the market has been overbought for a while. This may very well continue on and bring new highs, but we shouldn't be surprised by a short term correction. In the short term we have already seen a bit of a slow down these last couple days.
Position management - Hold long term long positions - Do not open new long positions until the short term situation unfolds more clearly. Aggressive short positions can be considered for brief swing positions.
Open positions - On its tenth day, the latest trade on ORCL showed a 7% profit at today's close, retreating from the peak we had yesterday at 45% profit (that wasn't bad for nine days in the trade!). We kept the trade on since the overall analysis has not changed. No changes in the other open trades.
Recently closed positions -
Closed at 63.7 % PROFIT
ENERGY SELECT SPDR (AMEX:XLE)
-Dec06 - 52.0 Call option
-Option symbol: XBTLZ
-Trade open on 10/5/06 - closed on 10/16/06
-days in trade: 8
-Profit/Loss: 63.7 % PROFIT
---------------------------------------------------------
Closed at 76.7 % PROFIT
ALTRIA GROUP INC (NYSE:MO)
-Dec06 - 85.0 Put option
-Option symbol: MO XQ
-Trade open on 9/6/06 - closed on 9/25/06
-days in trade: 14
-Profit/Loss: 76.7 % PROFIT
--------------------------------------------------------
Closed at 6.4 % PROFIT
NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (NasdaqGM:QQQQ)
-Sep06 - 37.0 call option
-Option symbol: QQQIK
-Trade open on 6/27/06 - closed on 9/5/06
-days in trade: 51
-Profit/Loss: 6.4 % PROFIT
--------------------------------------------------------
The Market - As of October 31st, from the long-term point of view, equities are posed to continue their current four-months run-up. The mid-term perspective calls for a bit of caution since the market has been overbought for a while. This may very well continue on and bring new highs, but we shouldn't be surprised by a short term correction. In the short term we have already seen a bit of a slow down these last couple days.
Position management - Hold long term long positions - Do not open new long positions until the short term situation unfolds more clearly. Aggressive short positions can be considered for brief swing positions.
Open positions - On its tenth day, the latest trade on ORCL showed a 7% profit at today's close, retreating from the peak we had yesterday at 45% profit (that wasn't bad for nine days in the trade!). We kept the trade on since the overall analysis has not changed. No changes in the other open trades.
Recently closed positions -
Closed at 63.7 % PROFIT
ENERGY SELECT SPDR (AMEX:XLE)
-Dec06 - 52.0 Call option
-Option symbol: XBTLZ
-Trade open on 10/5/06 - closed on 10/16/06
-days in trade: 8
-Profit/Loss: 63.7 % PROFIT
---------------------------------------------------------
Closed at 76.7 % PROFIT
ALTRIA GROUP INC (NYSE:MO)
-Dec06 - 85.0 Put option
-Option symbol: MO XQ
-Trade open on 9/6/06 - closed on 9/25/06
-days in trade: 14
-Profit/Loss: 76.7 % PROFIT
--------------------------------------------------------
Closed at 6.4 % PROFIT
NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (NasdaqGM:QQQQ)
-Sep06 - 37.0 call option
-Option symbol: QQQIK
-Trade open on 6/27/06 - closed on 9/5/06
-days in trade: 51
-Profit/Loss: 6.4 % PROFIT
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