Stock Market Trends - month's end - Stock Market Trends and Forecasts

Stock Market Trends and Forecasts

The Market - As of October 31st, from the long-term point of view, equities are posed to continue their current four-months run-up. The mid-term perspective calls for a bit of caution since the market has been overbought for a while. This may very well continue on and bring new highs, but we shouldn't be surprised by a short term correction. In the short term we have already seen a bit of a slow down these last couple days.

Position management - Hold long term long positions - Do not open new long positions until the short term situation unfolds more clearly. Aggressive short positions can be considered for brief swing positions.

Open positions - On its tenth day, the latest trade on ORCL showed a 7% profit at today's close, retreating from the peak we had yesterday at 45% profit (that wasn't bad for nine days in the trade!). We kept the trade on since the overall analysis has not changed. No changes in the other open trades.

Recently closed positions -

Closed at 63.7 % PROFIT
ENERGY SELECT SPDR (AMEX:XLE)
-Dec06 - 52.0 Call option
-Option symbol: XBTLZ
-Trade open on 10/5/06 - closed on 10/16/06
-days in trade: 8
-Profit/Loss: 63.7 % PROFIT
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Closed at 76.7 % PROFIT
ALTRIA GROUP INC (NYSE:MO)
-Dec06 - 85.0 Put option
-Option symbol: MO XQ
-Trade open on 9/6/06 - closed on 9/25/06
-days in trade: 14
-Profit/Loss: 76.7 % PROFIT
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Closed at 6.4 % PROFIT
NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (NasdaqGM:QQQQ)
-Sep06 - 37.0 call option
-Option symbol: QQQIK
-Trade open on 6/27/06 - closed on 9/5/06
-days in trade: 51
-Profit/Loss: 6.4 % PROFIT
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